2026 Season Prediction Thread
Friends, let me me first say how much I appreciate you and your continued takes, and the fact that you return year after year even when this blog goes dark during the offseason.
Just seeing your comments on these initial preseason games puts a smile on my face. It's getting real once again and there's lots to talk about!
I don't know what to think so far. Honestly, I think I'm so fatigued after years (err..decades - RaiderTake is now 21 years old) of new-regime hype that quickly devolves into disappointment that I'm in a sort of permanent "prove it" mode. Promises of anything "minty fresh" just feel empty until I see any sort of sustained success under a single coach, which hasn't happend since I started RaiderTake.
In short, while I'm not pessimistic, you might call me jaded.
I think that the Raiders will improve this year and get to around seven wins, but I'm not expecting some big jump.
Honestly, I think this year is, in many ways, all about next year. In other words, can this season at a minimum set the table for sustained momentum going forward? That won't be evident solely in the win column, it will come from having the horses to run the longer race and a coach and culture ready to lead the way. It'll be a feeling more than a winning percentage.
We've seen new-coach bumps in the win column several times before. And we've seen what usually happens afterward with the Raiders. Getting better or getting good has proven to be temporary phenomenon, while building something great has been elusive for a quarter century now.
On that note, while we're mired in the dog days of preseason, what are your takes and predictions for this season - and beyond?
posted by Raider Take at 9:59 AM
26 Comments:
Take,
I agree. I don't think this is a year where the Raiders are going to win everything; but it will be a good building block. I'd be content with 7 wins, anything below that will be disappointing to me.
My main concern, so far, in preseason is:
Who is going to step up on the D-Line other than Maxx, to help create pressure?
Will they be able to stop the run?
Pressure on the DLine helps our young DBs, if there is no pressure, will our young DB group hold up?
As far as offense, who outside of Bowers will step up for WR group?
I will say, the OLine looks vastly improved than last season, however, Jordan Meredith, JPJ, and RT are still a concern. I do like Trey Zuhn, I know he is a rookie and needs reps and will improve.
The positives so far have been Mike Washington appears to be a valuable punch with Jeanty. What I hear from reporters is that Maxx and Bowers are near unstoppable in practice (we have not seen them play in preseason).
I think Caleb Rogers has played better than Spencer Buford, but they have Buford as 1st team LG. Thomas Booker and Cian Slone have looked good on the DLine, Pegues and Hemingway have seem to disappear. Eichenberg looks sloppy and undisciplined. Greedy Vance reminds me of a young Nnamdi.
Going to be an interesting year, and again, I come into the season hype with the mantra of: Just Prove It, BABY!
Thanks for your take, RT. Nicely done! That's what I see, i.e., this year is all about next year and beyond. And that's why I'm quietly lobbying for Mendoza to start. Unless the Raiders have some magic potion on defense, there's really no chance to make a run this year. And Mendoza taking reps with the first team offense is the only way to set the future in motion. This is all predicated on significant improvement the Raiders made on the O-line, as well as a run game that's almost certain to improve behind that line and with the addition of a solid FB. It's already showing lots of promise.
Some fans think Mendoza shouldn't play because of the Raiders marginal WR corp, but the WRs don't protect the QB, the line does... and the first team looks up to the task.
It's the coach's decision, but Kubiak knows Mendoza will have to play this year, and Cousins already has one foot out the door for his next overpaid contract.
To all these points, Raiders would be smart to roster AOC. He is Mendoza's backup next year. Some writers are suggesting the Raiders only keep 2 QBs... which seems very shortsighted IMO.
It's worth mentioning that the Raiders have nobody to blame but themselves for lack of WRs. But some folks here told me how great Jalen Nailor was going to be (after sitting in the middle of stacked WR corp in MN). He and Tucker have mostly been held out of preseason, so it might be a little premature to label them as insufficient. I'm under the impression Kubiak just needs one from the pack to stand out and fill the top 3.
And not to beat a dead horse, but Jakobi Meyers was that guy until his absurd trade. Meyers caught over 100 balls with no drops two years ago. Who does that? Nobody! But the Raiders went all in with Bech and Thorton Jr, who couldn't catch a cold if they tried. Now, neither has stepped up... but both will likely make the roster (and one or both may be gone by next year).
WRs were available all off-season, and the Raiders had the money.
Just like that, Jeanty injured his leg in practice today. Vinny B said he was carried off the field by trainers, couldnt put weight on it, and the team took a knee and moment of silence. The team has not released any updates.
Seems like it's always going to be something holding the Raiders back. But the NFL isn't just about having a great team. There's an element of luck. Clearly, the Raiders version is bad luck.
The Jeanty injury could be a real concern. Kareem Hunt is available. Meanwhile, even after their record off-season spending, it seems like the Raiders have misfired at a couple positions despite having the resources. My impression has been that several one-year deals for good WRs were signed throughout the league. They could have addressed the WR position better, as well as DT and now RB due to injury. The DT they just picked up will almost certainly make the final roster, and that speaks to the lack of preparedness the Raiders had at the position.
Spytek has his moments, but the debacle last year partly falls in his lap. And his draft picks Bech and Thorton Jr have yet to step up, even when presented with better offensive scheme. Seems like Raiders top brass still lack consistency and the edge it will probably take to get the Raiders over the hump. I hope that changes.
Lane Kiffin is in the news for recruiting "pro" players cut from NFL training camps back to college. Weird. Kiffin has proven to be a good coach, but he's also proven to be a little slippery. Not sure where this falls. Yet I can't help but wonder if Kiffin might have been a good head coach for the Raiders and changed what has become decades long trajectory of pathetic results. Kiffin is an NFL legacy, as his dad was one the best defensive coordinators in the league. He's coached some biggest programs in college (currently at LSU) and has about 0.686 winning percentage in his college HC career.
Had the Raiders drafted Calvin Johnson instead of JaMarcus Russell (as Kiffin wanted), and Davis allowed Kiffin to coach the team, things would have been much different. But Al wasn't wired differently. Nobody outshined Al. Marcus Allen - benched. Jon Gruden - Traded. Lane Kiffin - fired for "insubordination."
If I'm ranking these, I'd say Allen getting benched hurt me the most. Gruden got his swift vengeance against the Raiders. But Kiffin's claim to Raiders lore is that he was right!
NY,
There is no woulda coulda shoulda with Lance. I can’t forget when he rolled Seabass out for like a 70yd field goal in Oakland… no body puts their team in a position to be embarrassed, which is exactly what he did. Jamarcus was considered the top pick and is why they went with him. The fault lays with JR for taking the bag and doing nothing with it…
Aussie Raider 🏴☠️
Not sure I agree it was Russell's fault. The Raiders drafted Russell without negotiating a contract, which was their right to do with the #1 pick. They would have learned of his demands and ultimate intention to holdout. Regardless, Kiffin was right about wanting Johnson over Russell.
Seabass was hitting 70-yarders and longer in practices, so I don't think attempting a 70-yd kick was completely off base. What was off base was drafting him in the first round.
Unfortunately, the Raiders have had a penchant for mistakes. There's been no shortage.
Let's not forget history here. Davis wanted Sarkisian, that was his choice, and Sark said no, but you should talk with Lane. Lane ended up taking the job, but tried to manipulate Al Davis to get his way, and when he couldn't, started throwing games and embarrassing the team.
As far as JaMarcus, he didn't help himself. He earned free money, but would not put in the work, he was lazy in practice, and became lazy in the games. He relied on his talent, instead of his brain (and not sure he had one). That was not a good year to draft a QB either, let's not forget. JaMarcus didn't even have the starting job at LSU, he shared and split that title with Matt Flynn, who was as equally as lazy.
It would have been better for the Raiders to trade the pick for a QB and lower picks. Remember, this is also when Al wasn't thinking clearly either and questions about his health started coming into question, and 4 years later was gone. Al's weakness was he was sold on talent and what could be. He didn't care about much outside of that. JaMarcus' talent and what could have been fascinated Al more than anything (Jeff George type of arm, Big Ben size). He had a vision for what he could do, but Lane didn't prepare him because Lane couldn't do it his way. This is why Lane was fired. He quit on the team because he couldn't get his way. Look at him now, he only stays at a place for a few years, and is gone. I don't think he is a good dude, or a good coach.
All to say, sure, he didn't help JaMarcus, but JaMarcus didn't help himself either, and how he still lives kinda proves that. I mean, it is not that someone fails, it is how they respond to the failure. Case in point, Ryan Leaf.
With that said, I wanted Megatron over Russell. Let's not forget, we had Dante Culpepper that year, and needed some OLine help, WR, and a RB. We could have been decent had we filled the holes on the team. We missed on Joe Thomas (HoF LT), Megatron, Adrian Peterson, Marshawn Lynch, Joe Staley, and Patrick Willis out of this draft. But that has been the problem with the Raiders for awhile, we have missed on the draft. I think Reggie McKenzie was the one to start to turn it around, until Gruden. Now Spytek is turning it around, and has hit it out of the park the past few years, but he needs to build the trenches on Defense, something he has neglected the last 2 seasons. I have always wondered where the team would be had Mark kept Reggie as GM, because I guarantee, it wouldn't be where we are.
Season is about to start, and we head off to another adventure of Just Prove It, BABY!
IMO, it's fair to assume Kiffin, as HC, thought he had some control over personnel, particularly, his QB. That turned out to be a hard "no." As for Russell being lazy, that seems like a trait the Raiders could have easily vetted - along with his financial demands - had they spoken to him and his agent prior to the draft. I remember this was in the media leading up to the draft.
While Mendonza might not be ready to start Game 1, the Raiders thoroughly vetted him despite his numerous and superior accolades compared to Russell. He is the exact opposite of Russell in terms of work ethic (and ability).
Raiders have been guess wrong too many times to count. Davis drafted Russell (who lacked experience) for his size and arm strength just like he drafted so many WRs and DBs purely for their speed. The Raiders also thought they could coach players up but have very little history of doing so.
Raiders have first dibs on the waiver wire. They better use it. My understanding is that they are first throughout this period which pretty much starts today. They could literally replace their entire roster by handpicking new players off waivers. While that's unrealistic, they better do something about their depth... almost every position needs help.
Koonce will make the roster because of his guaranteed contract but he's done nothing. Thorton is still recovering from injury and Bech has done nothing. 2nd team O-line is a huge drop off. Meridith is a turnstile at center.
Ian Thomas has disappointed, and the "Bergs" aren't as good as beat writers think they are... these guys are the only depth for starters who may be injury prone.
DBs are young and experienced, but I doubt Raiders bring in a vet. Raiders DBs will learn on the fly and get burned at times in the process.
The biggest upgrades this offseason were at QB and center... and coaching. Outside of that, Crosby and Bowers remain the heart of the team. Jeanty and Washington will be fun to watch in a new scheme, although Jeanty's sprain could easily linger and leave him on the sideline.
Ci,
Hey NY!...Was it true they want to make changes to the stadium? What!?..really? They want a Renovation fix things up/ change something or just build another part or build another area? And why are they doing it? Are fans OK with it or it's just a annoying part of game/ business or not sure? And they can't spend more on elite players?
Jordan Meredith has been traded to the Jets. Not sure what the compensation is at this point, but Meredith was not going to make our 53, so it is awesome to get compensation for a vet.
Not sure how "stadium" entered conversation, and I assume it is regarding Oakland situation. Raiders proposed 5 different plans to Oakland/Alameda to build 2 new stadiums and city park for themselves and A's. They had investors and people in place to do this. Oakland would not give tax breaks, rejected the Raiders' plans, and wanted the Raiders to use different investors and architects. This happened when the A's rejected pre-arranged plans with the Raiders in an attempt to push the Raiders out of Oakland. The Raiders moved to Vegas.
What is funny, the A's then presented the same plans for themselves with Oakland/Alameda, and were rejected from tax breaks, plans, and wanted the A's to use different investors and architects. I am still hoping Mark can help push to block the A's from moving to Vegas over what they did to him in Oakland. Fisher is a snake.
The trade is a 6th rd pick for a 7th plus Meredith. But the Raiders also shed his $3.5M salary for 2026. I thought he was a decent reserve G two years ago, then Carroll moved him to center and everything went downhill for him. This move is addition by subtraction.
I expect (hope) the Raiders will take advantage of being #1 on waivers. Some teams are loaded at positions the Raiders need help and they will be releasing good players. Raiders have first refusal. No time to get lazy or whiff at improving the roster.
Ci,
Raider Nate- They want to renovate, change areas, build up or build new area to Allegiant Stadium. Is this what 'business side' is? Why the focus on building and not football? Sn to ho ER do you feel about this? Is this good to fans? Why? They spend on stadium but won the on elite players? They are $Bs but refuse to spend on talent.Thix if more business than football and what about goitball
NY, did you really start a debate on the pos Kiffin? Your post defends Kiffin and puts down Al by listing some of his lowlights.... so hateful of you. I was a little worried about Mendoza after watching him in the last game but one of the writers I really respect Ted Ngyuen says he looks ready to start. Sandy
Didn't mean to hurt your feelings, but I can't change the facts. And that's funny about Mendoza, because we have officially flipped opinions on that. Now I think he needs more time to watch and learn. He's pressing a bit and overthrew a couple passes to open receivers, including the one Kubiak suggested Nailor should have caught. Speaking of overthrow, AOC missed a wide-open receiver for what should have been the game winner at the end of the 49ers game. I thought he might get released after that miss.
Schedule looks tough. Miami, then a buzz saw, then the Jets. I have tx to the Jets game, but the Raiders might already be neutered by then... and maybe Crosby is gone by then.
Some notable cuts yesterday that the Raiders should kick tires on:
WR Zay Jones
WR Sterling Shephard
DE Marcus Davenport
CB Eli Apple
Not sure about Jones or Shephard but the idea that there isn't a better option on waivers (or free agency) than Donte Thorton Jr is absurd. I'd guess it's Spytek holding on to him, not Kubiak. Notwithstanding, the Raiders are about to go into the 2026 with the worst WR group in the league, and it's not even close. Only a CB off waivers? What are they thinking?!
Think about it this way if the wide receivers suck which it looks like they may and the Raiders have a bad year maybe they get Jeremiah Smith in the draft. Sandy
Sandy, I'm exhausted after wishing for draft position this year. It has to be onward and upward from here on out. IMO, the Raiders needed to do better at WR this year, but they sat on their hands while several quality vets were signed to 1-year deals. It's been discouraging to watch their lack of action at WR. Then with #1 waiver position (which they had priority over all teams to select as many players as they wanted), they still did nothing. Did they fire all their scouts, Billy Bean style? They either know something we don't, or they are remarkably undermanaged. Or the other option is they've already thrown in the towel and strictly see 2026 as developmental.
The Raiders have done so many things I've applauded this off-season, but there are some headscratchers too. Is it possible they will get in their own way (beat themselves) just enough to remain the failures we've watched over the last 2+ decades?
Man, I hope not! I have higher hopes for Kubiak and Co.
I think Kiffin was probably too young and immature for the job at the time, and I also think he was partly set up to fail. So not a great recipe for success. Maybe with a bit more seasoning on his side and a bit more structure on the org side, then it might have turned out differently
NY, Actually the Raiders used their first waiver claim to get this DB Lutter. 5 other teams put in claim on him so he must have something intriguing. As far as WR I hear you the Raiders barely have a 2 never mind a 1 but they could not do everything this year. I would rather see if any of the young guys cna develop then sign an old guy like Keenan Allen. Its not going to move the needle on their season. Take, thanks for keeping this site alive, Kiffin is a bum. Linderbaum has looked great and I know its only preseason but the coaching looks much improved---a more organized team. Sandy
Yes, Keenan Allen was available and so were so many other vets that the Raiders could afford on a 1-year deal but they stuck with Bech, Thorton and company who apparently can't get open against 2nd and 3rd team reserves on other teams. I've been optimistically giving the Raiders on a pass at WR thru free agency, thru the draft, up to waivers/releases. Spytek drafted Bech and Thorton, so we appear to be stuck in neutral at WR until further notice.
The Kiffin discussion is my fault, but I am not defending Kiffin as much as saying, "what if". What if we drafted Calvin "Megatron" Johnson? What if Kiffin were given a little more room to develop into the coach he would eventually become?
The Raiders have a sad list of head coaches over the past 2+ decades. Kiffin is someone who actually enjoyed success post Raiders. Dennis Allen never did. Hugh Jackson certainly didn't. Tom Cable was never a head coach again. Even though I was behind Josh McDaniel, he will never be a successful head coach. Nobody is pursuing Antonio Pierce. The list is long. But there's Lane Kiffin, a legacy, who made noise in the coaching ranks, albeit college. Just an observation. I also said he can be a bit slippery, as evidenced by his recruiting NFL eligible players back to college.
Ci,
Why add on yo s great stadium? What jazz are they telling us now...to get us to buy it? It may sound like a good idea or just a unnecessary but no big deal thing but think it's not a way to raise prices? And they didn't go after waiver top players. OK, they claim it's a rebuild did they? But is that an excuse to not get better players?
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