The Math of Expectations

The Raiders should be expected to notch eight wins this year at a minimum, given the time and tools available to Mark Davis and Reggie McKenzie in recent years. And here's the fuzzy math to prove it: 

For starters, this exercise aims to be conservative and reasonable in its analysis. On that note, let's give Mark/Reggie a complete pass for 2012. It was a year to clean house, or at least get it in order. That year, the Raiders went 4-12. 

So our win basis for today's exercise is four. That is our starting point.

Now, the whole point of free agency and the draft is to get better, not worse. In other words, with each draft and free agency period, there's an expectation of improvement with a positive impact on results.

Furthermore, the arrival of a better coach and coaching staff should also have a positive impact on results.

In other words, there are expectations that come with executing things like the draft, free agent signings and coach hirings. 

Which brings us to what I would call The Math of Expectations:

Let's begin by assigning values to minimal expectations of a job done well in running an NFL team, and specifically a rebuilding team that sorely lacks talent.

For a rebuilding team, a competent job in free agency should conservatively result in a gain of .75 of a win in the standings. Over the past two years (when we've truly had money to spend), that would add up to 1.5 wins.

I think you could also make a conservative estimate that the same holds for the draft (a gain of .75 wins per complete draft). Therefore, the past three complete drafts should add up to at least 2.25 expected wins.

Therefore, the cumulative conservative expectation is 2.25 wins + 1.5 wins since 2013.

Together, this adds up to an expected gain of 3.75 wins accumulated over the past three drafts and two free agency periods. 

Next up, the coaching factor. I will be conservative on this front as well. At a bare minimum, replacing Dennis Allen & Co. with a better staff should be worth at least one extra win. Improving results is the whole point of changing coaches, right?

Given that, we now have a minimum expectation of 4.75 wins gained.

Now, as explained at the top, our baseline starting point for Mark/Reggie was four wins. Add to that the 4.75 expected wins gained as outlined above, and you have a reasonable expectation of 8.75 wins by the conclusion of the 2015 season. And to be more conservative, let's round it down to eight wins, ie: a .500 record.

Some will say, hey wait a minute, we went 3-13 last year, so how can the baseline be four wins. My answer is that the expectations are not simply erased by missing the expectations. You're supposed to get better in the draft and free agency. That's the expectation. If you don't  get better, that doesn't mean the expectation was wrong or that it has been erased. It just means that the expectation was not met. 

So there you have it. The Raiders should reach .500 this year. Now it's time to see if they will. Aim high, go Raiders!